Shifts in Rossby wave regimes via the change of group velocity with zonal jets

Abstract

Evidences show it is questionable to use the trends in Rossby wave phase speed (Cpx) to interpret the relation between the changes of extreme events and westerly jets. We propose, by using 70 years (1954-2023) of ERA5 reanalysis, that the trends in extremes are associated with the shifts of Rossby wave regimes, via the westerly-induced changes in Rossby wave group velocity (Cgx), which are two to three times larger than those in Cpx. We find significant deceleration in the subtropics and polar regions, alongside a salient midlatitude acceleration, of Rossby wave Cgx, especially over the East Asia-Pacific-North America and North Atlantic-Europe sectors. These changes induce robust shifts in spatiotemporal regimes of Rossby waves, from the transient synoptic-scale regime toward the quasi-stationary planetary-scale wave regime where Cgx decelerates, and vice versa. The CESM2 Large Ensemble confirms that the observed pattern over the Eurasia-Pacific-North America sector is a forced response to external forcing, while uncertainties remain over the polar regions and the North Atlantic. We suggest that westerly trends may reshape the regimes of extratropical Rossby wave activity and extreme weather events through the changes in group velocity rather than phase speed of Rossby waves.