The Complexity of Unpredictability

Abstract

We initiate the study of middle-bit predictors: functions that take as input a string with one missing bit and try to predict that bit. These are closely related to next-bit predictors, a classical object in pseudorandomness. We study the deterministic complexity of computing an unpredictable distribution (UNPRED). Given a list of middle-bit predictors in circuit form and a parameter $ε>0$, output a multiset of strings such that each predictor succeeds with probability less than $1/2+ε$ on a uniformly sampled string from the multiset. We write $\mathsf{UNPRED}^{\mathsf{TC}^1}$ for the restriction to $\mathsf{TC}^1$ predictors. We show that UNPRED offers a unified route towards resolving several major open problems in catalytic computation, the biggest of which is whether deterministic polynomial time (P and FP) can simulate catalytic logspace (CL and SearchCL). It is believed that $\mathsf{SearchCL}\subseteq\mathsf{FP}$. We prove $$\mathsf{UNPRED}\in\mathsf{FP}\implies\mathsf{SearchCL}\subseteq\mathsf{FP}\implies\mathsf{UNPRED}^{\mathsf{TC}^1}\in\mathsf{FP}.$$ Thus, the questions of whether UNPRED is in FP and whether SearchCL is contained in FP are almost equivalent, up to the restriction to $\mathsf{TC}^1$ circuits. We also show that any deterministic polynomial-time algorithm for $\mathsf{UNPRED}^{\mathsf{TC}^1}$ must exploit properties of $\mathsf{TC}^1$ circuits, either in the algorithm itself or in its analysis. To our knowledge, this would also be the first algorithm to use the structure of $\mathsf{TC}^1$ circuits in this way to solve a natural problem, thus advancing our understanding of Boolean circuits. Together, our results provide strong evidence that middle-bit predictors could be the key to unlocking several major open problems in catalytic computation, pseudorandomness, and Boolean circuit complexity.