Evolution and extinction dynamics in rugged fitness landscapes

Abstract

Macroevolution is considered as a problem of stochastic dynamics in a system with many competing agents. Evolutionary events (speciations and extinctions) are triggered by fitness records found by random exploration of the agents' fitness landscapes. As a consequence, the average fitness in the system increases logarithmically with time, while the rate of extinction steadily decreases. This dynamics is studied by numerical simulations and, in a simpler mean field version, analytically. We also study the effect of externally added `mass' extinctions. The predictions for various quantities of paleontological interest (life-time distributions, distribution of event sizes and behavior of the rate of extinction) are robust and in good agreement with available data. Brief version of parts of this work have been published as Letters. (PRL 75, 2055, (1995) and PRL, 79, 1413, (1997))