Prediction of supersoft X-ray phase, helium enrichment, and turn-off time in recurrent nova CI Aquilae 2000 outburst

Abstract

Recurrent nova CI Aquilae is still bright 300 days after the optical maximum, showing the slowest evolution among recurrent novae. We predict the turn-off time of CI Aql 2000 outburst coming in August 2001 after a supersoft X-ray source (SSS) phase lasts 250 days. We also predict helium enrichment of ejecta, He/H = 0.25 by number. Observational confirmations are urgently required. Based on the optically thick wind mass-loss theory of the thermonuclear runaway model, we have also estimated the WD mass to be 1.2 +- 0.05 Msun by fitting our theoretical light curves with the 1917 and 2000 outbursts. The mass of the hydrogen-rich envelope on the WD is also estimated to be 6 x 10^{-6} Msun at the optical maximum, indicating an average mass accretion rate of 0.7 x 10^{-7} Msun/yr during the quiescent phase between the 1917 and 2000 outbursts. Using these obtained values, we have consistently reproduced the light curve in quiescence as well as the two outburst phases. Thus, we predict the turn-off time to be in August 2001 for the 2000 outburst. We strongly recommend soft X-ray observations to detect SSS until August 2001 because the massive wind phase have already ended in December 2000 followed by an SSS phase that very likely lasts until August 2001.