What can rapid terrestrial biogenesis tell us about life in the universe?

Abstract

It is sometimes asserted that the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth suggests that life is common in the Universe. We critically examine the assumptions inherent in this argument. Using a lottery model for biogenesis in the Universe, we convert the observational constraints on the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth into constraints on the probability of biogenesis on other terrestrial planets. For example, if terrestrial biogenesis took less than 200 Myr (and we assume that it could have taken 1 billion years) then we find the probability of biogenesis on terrestrial planets older than ~ 1 Gyr, is > 36% at the 95% confidence level. However, there are assumptions and selection effects that complicate this result: although we correct the analysis for the fact that biogenesis is a prerequisite for our existence, our result depends on the plausible assumption that rapid biogenesis is not such a prerequisite.