How long before the end of inflation were observable perturbations produced?

Abstract

We reconsider the issue of the number of e-foldings before the end of inflation at which observable perturbations were generated. We determine a plausible upper limit on that number for the standard cosmology which is around 60, with the expectation that the actual value will be up to 10 below this. We also note a special property of the $\lambda \phi^4$ model which reduces the uncertainties in that case and favours a higher value, giving a fairly definite prediction of 64 e-foldings for that model. We note an extreme (and highly implausible) situation where the number of e-foldings can be even higher, possibly up to 100, and discuss the shortcomings of quantifying inflation by e-foldings rather than by the change in $aH$. Finally, we discuss the impact of non-standard evolution between the end of inflation and the present, showing that again the expected number of e-foldings can be modified, and in some cases significantly increased.