The decline and fall of GRS 1915+105: the end is nigh?

Abstract

The galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 has been in a continuous state of outburst since 1992, over 20 times longer than any other black hole X-ray transient. Assuming that the outburst is powered via accretion of an irradiated gaseous disc, we calculate how the predicted outburst duration varies according to the efficiency of the self-irradiation mechanism. At least one current model leads to the conclusion that the end of the outburst is imminent. The timing of the decline of GRS 1915+105, whenever it arrives, will be an excellent discriminator of the self-irradiation mechanism in X-ray transients, allowing us to infer the fraction of the disc that is heated by the incident X-rays and the magnitude of the mass loss rate in the form of a wind.