Photon Statistics Limits for Earth-Based Parallax Measurements of MACHO Events

Abstract

We analyze the limitations imposed by photon counting statistics on extracting useful information about MACHOs from Earth-based parallax observations of microlensing events. We find that if one or more large (say $2.5\,\rm m$) telescopes are dedicated to observing a MACHO event for several nights near maximum amplification, then it is possible, in principle, to measure the velocity of the MACHO well enough to distinguish between disk and halo populations for events with $\omega {A_m}\!^2 \gta 1\,\rm day^{-1}$, where $\omega^{-1}$ denotes the timescale of the event and $A_m$ denotes its maximum amplification. Thus, if it turns out to be possible to reduce all other sources of error to below that of photon statistics, it may be feasible to do useful Earth-based parallax observations for high amplification events.