Bayesian Blocks, A New Method to Analyze Structure in Photon Counting Data

Abstract

I describe a new time-domain algorithm for detecting localized structures (bursts), revealing pulse shapes, and generally characterizing intensity variations. The input is raw counting data, in any of three forms: time-tagged photon events (TTE), binned counts, or time-to-spill (TTS) data. The output is the most likely segmentation of the observation into time intervals during which the photon arrival rate is perceptibly constant -- i.e. has a fixed intensity without statistically significant variations. Since the analysis is based on Bayesian statistics, I call the resulting structures Bayesian Blocks. Unlike most, this method does not stipulate time bins -- instead the data themselves determine a piecewise constant representation. Therefore the analysis procedure itself does not impose a lower limit to the time scale on which variability can be detected. Locations, amplitudes, and rise and decay times of pulses within a time series can be estimated, independent of any pulse-shape model -- but only if they do not overlap too much, as deconvolution is not incorporated. The Bayesian Blocks method is demonstrated by analyzing pulse structure in BATSE $\gamma$-ray data. The MatLab scripts and sample data can be found on the WWW at: http://george.arc.nasa.gov/~scargle/papers.html