The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California
Kristy F. Tiampo, John B. Rundle, Seth McGinnis, Susanna Gross, William Klein
Abstract
We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and future earthquake occurrence. Thousands of statistical tests indicate the method has considerable forecast skill. We emphasize that the method is not a model, and there are no unconstrained or free parameters to be determined by fits to training data sets.
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