Measuring Anti-Correlations in the Nordic Electricity Spot Market by Wavelets
Ingve Simonsen
Abstract
We consider the Nordic electricity spot market from mid 1992 to the end of year 2000. This market is found to be well approximated by an anti-persistent self-affine (mean-reverting) walk. It is characterized by a Hurst exponent of H 0.41 over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from days to years. We argue that in order to see such a good scaling behavior, and to locate cross-overs, it is crucial that an analyzing technique is used that decouples scales. This is in our case achieved by utilizing a (multi-scale) wavelet approach. The shortcomings of methods that do not decouple scales are illustrated by applying, to the same dat a set, the classic R/S- and Fourier techniques, for which scaling regimes and/or positions of cross-overs are hard to define.
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