On the predictability of Rainfall in Kerala- An application of ABF Neural Network
Ninan Sajeeth Philip, K. Babu Joseph
Abstract
Rainfall in Kerala State, the southern part of Indian Peninsula in particular is caused by the two monsoons and the two cyclones every year. In general, climate and rainfall are highly nonlinear phenomena in nature giving rise to what is known as the `butterfly effect'. We however attempt to train an ABF neural network on the time series rainfall data and show for the first time that in spite of the fluctuations resulting from the nonlinearity in the system, the trends in the rainfall pattern in this corner of the globe have remained unaffected over the past 87 years from 1893 to 1980. We also successfully filter out the chaotic part of the system and illustrate that its effects are marginal over long term predictions.
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