Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays from Compact Sources

Abstract

The clustering of ultra high energy (above 10^20 eV) cosmic rays (UHECR) suggests that they might be emitted by compact sources. Statistical analysis of Dubovsky et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 85 (2000) 1154) estimated the source density. We extend their analysis to give also the confidence intervals for the number of sources using a.) no assumptions on the relationship between clustered and unclustered events; b.) nontrivial distributions for the source intensities and energies; c.) the energy dependence of the propagation. We determine the probability that a proton created at a distance r with energy E arrives at earth above a threshold E_c. Using this function one can determine the observed spectrum just by one numerical integration for any injection spectrum. The observed 14 UHECR events above 10^20 eV with one doublet gives for the source densities 180_-165^+2730*10^-3 Mpc^-3 (on the 68% confidence level). We present detailed results for future experiments with larger UHECRs statistics.