What is the probability that $\theta_{13}$ and CP violation will be discovered in future neutrino oscillation experiments?

Abstract

The sensitivity of future neutrino oscillation experiments is determined within a frequentist framework by using a statistical procedure based on Monte Carlo simulations. I consider the search for a non-zero value of the mixing angle $\theta_{13}$ at the T2K and Double-Chooz experiments, as well as the discovery of CP violation at the example of the T2HK experiment. The probability that a discovery will be made at a given confidence level is calculated as a function of the true parameter values by generating large ensembles of artificial experiments. The interpretation of the commonly used sensitivity limits is clarified.