What will the first year of SNO show?

Abstract

The ratio of the measured to the predicted standard model CC event rates in SNO will be 0.47 if no oscillations occur. The best-fit active oscillation predictions for the CC ratio are: 0.35-39 (MSW) and 0.38-42 (vacuum) (all for a 5 MeV energy threshold), typically about 20% less than the no-oscillation expectation. We calculate the predicted ratios for six active and sterile neutrino oscillation solutions allowed at 99% CL and determine the dependence of the ratios on energy threshold. If the high-energy anomaly observed by SuperKamiokande is due to an enhanced hep flux, MSW active solutions predict that out of a total of 5000 CC events above 5 MeV in SNO between 49 and 54 events will be observed above 13 MeV whereas only 19 events are expected for no-oscillations and a nominal standard hep flux.