ANOVA for diffusions and It\^{o} processes

Abstract

It\^{o} processes are the most common form of continuous semimartingales, and include diffusion processes. This paper is concerned with the nonparametric regression relationship between two such It\^{o} processes. We are interested in the quadratic variation (integrated volatility) of the residual in this regression, over a unit of time (such as a day). A main conceptual finding is that this quadratic variation can be estimated almost as if the residual process were observed, the difference being that there is also a bias which is of the same asymptotic order as the mixed normal error term. The proposed methodology, ``ANOVA for diffusions and It\^{o} processes,'' can be used to measure the statistical quality of a parametric model and, nonparametrically, the appropriateness of a one-regressor model in general. On the other hand, it also helps quantify and characterize the trading (hedging) error in the case of financial applications.