Spatial Epidemics: Critical Behavior in One Dimension

Abstract

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite populations of size N are situated at the sites of a lattice and infectious contacts are limited to individuals at neighboring sites. Scaling laws for these models are given when the infection parameter p is such that the epidemics are critical. It is shown that in all cases there is a critical threshold for the numbers initially infected: below the threshold, the epidemic evolves in essentially the same manner as its branching envelope, but at the threshold evolves like a branching process with a size-dependent drift. The corresponding scaling limits are super-Brownian motions and Dawson-Watanabe processes with killing, respectively.