Inductive Logic: From Data Analysis to Experimental Design

Abstract

In celebration of the work of Richard Threlkeld Cox, we explore inductive logic and its role in science touching on both experimental design and analysis of experimental results. In this exploration we demonstrate that the duality between the logic of assertions and the logic of questions has important consequences. We discuss the conjecture that the relevance or bearing, b, of a question on an issue can be expressed in terms of the probabilities, p, of the assertions that answer the question via the entropy. In its application to the scientific method, the logic of questions, inductive inquiry, can be applied to design an experiment that most effectively addresses a scientific issue. This is performed by maximizing the relevance of the experimental question to the scientific issue to be resolved. It is shown that these results are related to the mutual information between the experiment and the scientific issue, and that experimental design is akin to designing a communication channel that most efficiently communicates information relevant to the scientific issue to the experimenter. Application of the logic of assertions, inductive inference (Bayesian inference) completes the experimental process by allowing the researcher to make inferences based on the information obtained from the experiment.