A posteriori reading of Virtual Impactors impact probability

Abstract

In this paper we define the a posteriori probability W. This quantity is introduced with the aim of suggesting a reliable interpretation of the actual threat posed by a newly discovered Near Earth Asteroid (NEA), for which impacting orbital solutions (now commonly known as Virtual Impactors or VIs) can not be excluded on the basis of the available astrometric observations. The probability W is strictly related to the so-called background impact probability (that extrapolated through a statistical analysis from close encounters of the known NEA population) and to the annual frequency with which the impact monitoring systems (currently NEODyS-CLOMON at University of Pisa and SENTRY at NASA-JPL) find VIs among newly discovered asteroids. Of W we also provide a conservative estimate, which turns out to be of nearly the same order of the background impact probability. This eventually says to us what we already know: the fact that nowadays monitoring systems frequently find VIs among newly discovered asteroids does not make NEAs more threatening than they have ever been.