Modeling stochastic clonal interference

Abstract

We study the competition between several advantageous mutants in an asexual population (clonal interference) as a function of the time between the appearance of the mutants, their selective advantages, and the rate of deleterious mutations. We find that the overall probability of fixation (the probability that at least one of the mutants becomes the ancestor of the entire population) does not depend on the time interval between the appearance of these mutants, and equals the probability that a genotype bearing all of these mutations reaches fixation. This result holds also in the presence of deleterious mutations, and for an arbitrary number of competing mutants. We also show that if mutations interfere, an increase in the mean number of fixation events is associated with a decrease in the expected fitness gain of the population.