Analytic solution of Hubbell's model of local community dynamics

Abstract

Recent theoretical approaches to community structure and dynamics reveal that many large-scale features of community structure (such as species-rank distributions and species-area relations) can be explained by a so-called neutral model. Using this approach, species are taken to be equivalent and trophic relations are not taken into account explicitly. Here we provide a general analytic solution to the local community model of Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity by recasting it as an urn model i.e.a Markovian description of states and their transitions. Both stationary and time-dependent distributions are analysed. The stationary distribution -- also called the zero-sum multinomial -- is given in closed form. An approximate form for the time-dependence is obtained by using an expansion of the master equation. The temporal evolution of the approximate distribution is shown to be a good representation for the true temporal evolution for a large range of parameter values.