Frequentist Hypothesis Testing with Background Uncertainty
Kyle S. Cranmer
Abstract
We consider the standard Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test of a signal-plus-background hypothesis and background-only hypothesis in the presence of uncertainty on the background-only prediction. Surprisingly, this problem has not been addressed in the recent conferences on statistical techniques in high-energy physics -- although the its confidence-interval equivalent has been. We discuss the issues of power, similar tests, coverage, and ordering rules. The method presented is compared to the Cousins-Highland technique, the ratio of Poisson means, and ``profile'' method.
Create a lesson
Related papers
Reduced latent leakage does not reliably predict lower likelihood bias in collider inference
Tong Pan
The Greedy Bump Bias: Local Profiling Geometry and the Look-Elsewhere Effect
Tommaso Dorigo
Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation of floor response spectra under combined seismic and structural parameter uncertainties
Nils Baillie, Baptiste Kerleguer, Cyril Feau et al.
Parameter inference from a non-stationary unknown process using statistical feature-based slow feature analysis
Kieran S. Owens, Masako Tamaki, Ben D. Fulcher
A Probability Model for Pentagonal Prism Dice Rolls
Paul R. Hurst, J. Naleo Hyde
Geometry-native machine learning reconstruction of DSMC moment fields with support monitoring
Ehsan Roohi