Cosmic Rays and Solar Insolation as the Main Control Parameters of the Catastrophe Theory of Climatic Response to Orbital Variations

Abstract

The energy-balance model of global climate, which is taking into account a nontrivial role of solar and galactic protons, is presented. The model is described by the equation of fold catastrophe relative to increment of temperature, where the variation of a solar insolation and cosmic rays are control parameters. It is shown that the bifurcation equation of the model describes one of two stable states of the climate system. The solution of this equation exhibits the property of the determined bistable behavior of climate at the global level and the possibility of appearance of the determined chaos of "the weathers" at the local levels. The results of the comparative analysis of the computer simulation of the time-dependent solution of energy-balance model of global climate and the oxygen isotope records for deep-sea core V28-238 over the past 730 kyr are presented, and the evolution of climate on 100 kyr forward is also predicted. It is shown that the proposed model successfully explains the nicety of the paleoclimatic records. The model is clear of all known difficulties of the Milankovich theory for the analysis and the interpretation of physical mechanism, by which the climate system responds to orbital forcing.