Opinion dynamics and decision of vote in bipolar political systems

Abstract

A model of the opinion dynamics underlying the political decision is proposed. The analysis is restricted to a bipolar scheme with a possible third political area. The interaction among voters is local but the final decision strongly depends on global effects such as, for example, the rating of the governments. As in the realistic case, the individual decision making process is determined by the most relevant personal interests and problems. The phenomenological analysis of the national vote in Italy and Germany has been carried out and a prediction of the next Italian vote as a function of the government rating is presented.