The Fermi's Bayes Theorem

Abstract

It is curious to learn that Enrico Fermi knew how to base probabilistic inference on Bayes theorem, and that some influential notes on statistics for physicists stem from what the author calls elsewhere, but never in these notes, {\it the Bayes Theorem of Fermi}. The fact is curious because the large majority of living physicists, educated in the second half of last century -- a kind of middle age in the statistical reasoning -- never heard of Bayes theorem during their studies, though they have been constantly using an intuitive reasoning quite Bayesian in spirit. This paper is based on recollections and notes by Jay Orear and on Gauss' ``Theoria motus corporum coelestium'', being the {\it Princeps mathematicorum} remembered by Orear as source of Fermi's Bayesian reasoning.