Threat Characterization: Trajectory Dynamics

Abstract

Given a primary interest in "mitigation of the potential hazard" of near-Earth objects impacting the Earth, the subject of characterization takes on an aspect not normally present when considering asteroids as abstract bodies. Many deflection concepts are interested in the classic geophysical characteristics of asteroids when considering the physical challenge of modifying their orbits in order to cause them to subsequently miss an impact with Earth. Yet for all deflection concepts there are characteristics of the threat which overwhelm these traditional factors. For example, a close gravitational encounter with Earth some years or decades prior to impact can reduce the velocity change necessary for deflection by several orders of magnitude if the deflection precedes the close encounter (or encounters). Conversely this "benefit" comes at a "price"; a corresponding increase in the accuracy of tracking required to determine the probability of impact. Societal issues, both national and international, also characterize the NEO deflection process and these may strongly contend with the purely technical issues normally considered. Therefore critical factors not normally considered must be brought into play as one characterizes the threat of NEO impacts.