On the El-Nino Teleconnection to Spring Precipitation in Europe
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Gerrit Burgers, Albert Klein Tank
Abstract
In a statistical analysis of more than a century of data we find a strong connection between strong warm El Nino winter events and high spring precipitation in a band from Southern England eastwards into Asia. This relationship is an extension of the connection mentioned by Kiladis and Diaz (1989), and much stronger than the winter season teleconnection that has been the subject of other studies. Linear correlation coefficients between DJF NINO3 indices and MAM precipitation are higher than r=0.3 for individual stations, and as high as r=0.49 for an index of precipitation anomalies around 50N from 5W to 35E. The lagged correlation suggests that south-east Asian surface temperature anomalies may act as intermediate variables.
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