Analytic Confidence Level Calculations using the Likelihood Ratio and Fourier Transform
Hongbo Hu, Jason Nielsen
Abstract
The interpretation of new particle search results involves a confidence level calculation on either the discovery hypothesis or the background-only ("null") hypothesis. A typical approach uses toy Monte Carlo experiments to build an expected experiment estimator distribution against which an observed experiment's estimator may be compared. In this note, a new approach is presented which calculates analytically the experiment estimator distribution via a Fourier transform, using the likelihood ratio as an ordering estimator. The analytic approach enjoys an enormous speed advantage over the toy Monte Carlo method, making it possible to quickly and precisely calculate confidence level results.
Create a lesson
Related papers
Reduced latent leakage does not reliably predict lower likelihood bias in collider inference
Tong Pan
The Greedy Bump Bias: Local Profiling Geometry and the Look-Elsewhere Effect
Tommaso Dorigo
Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation of floor response spectra under combined seismic and structural parameter uncertainties
Nils Baillie, Baptiste Kerleguer, Cyril Feau et al.
Parameter inference from a non-stationary unknown process using statistical feature-based slow feature analysis
Kieran S. Owens, Masako Tamaki, Ben D. Fulcher
A Probability Model for Pentagonal Prism Dice Rolls
Paul R. Hurst, J. Naleo Hyde
Geometry-native machine learning reconstruction of DSMC moment fields with support monitoring
Ehsan Roohi