The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious disease in Sweden
Martin Camitz, Fredrik Liljeros
Abstract
Travel restrictions may reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health. In this study we investigate what effect different levels of travel restrictions may have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to SARS. We use a stochastic simulation model of the Swedish population, calibrated with survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over three years. We find that a ban on journeys longer than 50 km drastically reduces the speed and the geographical spread of outbreaks, even with when compliance is less than 100%. The result is found to be robust for different rates of inter-municipality transmission intensities. Travel restrictions may therefore be an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future outbreak.
Create a lesson
Related papers
Automatic denoising and differentiation based on Savitzky-Golay filtering and Homogeneous Differentiators for attractor reconstruction via differential embedding
Uros Sutulovic, Daniele Proverbio, Rami Katz et al.
FlowLOT: Linearized Optimal Transport for Flow Cytometry Analysis
Naqib Sad Pathan, Mohammad Shifat-E-Rabbi, Kristofor E. Pas et al.
GIA: Germline-Informed Aging with AlphaGenome Finds Genetically Regulated CpGs
Sean Lim
Decoding Extrahepatic Targeting of Lipid Nanoparticles with Interpretable Machine Learning
Asal Mehradfar, Mohammad Shahab Sepehri, Owen Antholine et al.
GPCR Ligand Bioactivity Prediction with Physics-Informed Dual-State Query Learning
Shuo Zhang, Huifeng Zhang, Rongqi Hong et al.
Optical microelectrode arrays for differential readout of electrical and mechanical signals in cardiac cells
Alessandro Leronni, Rosalia Moreddu