Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagramsWe propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually…Yan Y. Kagan·Jun 17, 2008SaveLearn
On discrete stochastic processes with long-lasting time dependenceIn this manuscript, we analytically and numerically study statistical properties of an heteroskedastic process based on the celebrated ARCH generator of random variables whose variance is defined by…Silvio M. Duarte Queiros·Jun 16, 2008SaveLearn
Kepler versus AkaikeI use the example of the Earth's orbit to illustrate the principle behind the Akaike Information Criterion, and refute the misconception that the criterion, by definition, discards more complex…Tomasz Stachowiak·Jun 16, 2008SaveLearn
Identification of community structure in networks with convex optimizationWe reformulate the problem of modularity maximization over the set of partitions of a network as a conic optimization problem over the completely positive cone, converting it from a combinatorial…Roland Hildebrand·Jun 11, 2008SaveLearn
Maximise global gain in the minority gameWe find a simple, partially altruistic mechanism that can increase global gain for a community of selfish agents. The mechanism is implied in the phenomena found in the minority game. We apply the…Sy-Sang Liaw·Jun 4, 2008SaveLearn
Fourier-Based Spectral Analysis with Adaptive ResolutionDespite being the most popular methods of data analysis, Fourier-based techniques suffer from the problem of static resolution that is currently believed to be a fundamental limitation of the Fourier…Andrey Khilko·Jun 4, 2008SaveLearn
Averaging Results with Theoretical UncertaintiesCombining measurements which have "theoretical uncertainties" is a delicate matter, due to an unclear statistical basis. We present an algorithm based on the notion that a theoretical…F. C. Porter·Jun 3, 2008SaveLearn
Fluctuations and Pseudo Long Range Dependence in Network Flows: A Non-Stationary Poisson Process ModelIn the study of complex networks (systems), the scaling phenomenon of flow fluctuations refers to a certain power-law between the mean flux (activity) <Fi> of the ith node and its variance σi…Yudong Chen, Li Li, Yi Zhang et al.·Jun 2, 2008SaveLearn
Orientation control by flow: Exact results and Langevin simulationsRod shaped objects suspended in a flowing liquid might be orientated by the velocity, nature of the liquid, the flow and the geometry of the channel containing the flow. Orientation settings might…C. Tannous·May 29, 2008SaveLearn
High frequency intrinsic modes in El Niño Southern Oscillation IndexRecent daily data of the Southern Oscillation Index have been analyzed. The power spectrum indicates major intrinsic geophysical short periods. We find interesting ``high frequency''…Filippo Petroni, Marcel Ausloos·May 22, 2008SaveLearn
Bayesian approach to clustering real value, categorical and network data: solution via variational methodsData clustering, including problems such as finding network communities, can be put into a systematic framework by means of a Bayesian approach. The application of Bayesian approaches to real…Alexei Vazquez·May 17, 2008SaveLearn
Accurate estimator of correlations between asynchronous signalsThe estimation of the correlation between time series is often hampered by the asynchronicity of the signals. Cumulating data within a time window suppresses this source of noise but weakens the…Bence Toth, Janos Kertesz·May 15, 2008SaveLearn
Optimal Estimation of Several Linear Parameters in the Presence of Lorentzian Thermal NoiseIn a previous article we developed an approach to the optimal (minimum variance, unbiased) statistical estimation technique for the equilibrium displacement of a damped, harmonic oscillator in the…Jason H. Steffen, Michael W. Moore, Paul E. Boynton·May 1, 2008SaveLearn
Characterizing Synchronization in Time Series using Information Measures Extracted from Symbolic RepresentationsWe present a methodology to characterize synchronization in time series based on symbolic representations. A symbol is linked to a sequence of numbers through the rank-order of its values. A…Roberto Monetti, Wolfram Bunk, Ferdinand Jamitzky·Apr 29, 2008SaveLearn
An effective local routing strategy on the BA networkIn this paper, We propose a effective routing strategy on the basis of the so-called nearest neighbor search strategy by introducing a preferential delivering exponent alpha. we assume that the…Yu-Jian Li, Zhen-Dong Xi, Chuan-Yang Yin et al.·Apr 25, 2008SaveLearn
Frequentist Coverage Properties of Uncertainty Intervals for Weak Poisson Signals in the Presence of BackgroundWe construct uncertainty intervals for weak Poisson signals in the presence of background. We consider the case where a primary experiment yields a realization of the signal plus background, and a…K. J. Coakley, J. D. Splett, D. S. Simons·Apr 25, 2008SaveLearn
Separating Signals from Non-Interfering Backgrounds using Probabilistic Event WeightingsA common situation in experimental physics is to have a signal which can not be separated from a non-interfering background through the use of any cut. In this paper, we describe a procedure for…M. Williams, M. Bellis, C. A. Meyer·Apr 21, 2008SaveLearn
Bivariate phase-rectified signal averagingPhase-Rectified Signal Averaging (PRSA) was shown to be a powerful tool for the study of quasi-periodic oscillations and nonlinear effects in non-stationary signals. Here we present a bivariate PRSA…Aicko Y. Schumann, Jan W. Kantelhardt, Axel Bauer et al.·Apr 17, 2008SaveLearn
Self-organized Natural Roads for Predicting Traffic Flow: A Sensitivity StudyIn this paper, we extended road-based topological analysis to both nationwide and urban road networks, and concentrated on a sensitivity study with respect to the formation of self-organized natural…Bin Jiang, Sijian Zhao, Junjun Yin·Apr 10, 2008SaveLearn
Fractal and Multifractal Time SeriesData series generated by complex systems exhibit fluctuations on many time scales and/or broad distributions of the values. In both equilibrium and non-equilibrium situations, the natural…Jan W. Kantelhardt·Apr 4, 2008SaveLearn
Use of the median in Physics and AstronomyThe sample median is often used in statistical analyses of physical or astronomical data wherein a central value must be found from samples polluted by elements which do not belong to the population…Jean-Michel Levy·Apr 3, 2008SaveLearn
Testing Consistency of Two HistogramsSeveral approaches to testing the hypothesis that two histograms are drawn from the same distribution are investigated. We note that single-sample continuous distribution tests may be adapted to this…Frank C. Porter·Apr 2, 2008SaveLearn
Evolutionary Computation in High Energy PhysicsEvolutionary Computation is a branch of computer science with which, traditionally, High Energy Physics has fewer connections. Its methods were investigated in this field, mainly for data analysis…Liliana Teodorescu·Apr 2, 2008SaveLearn
On approximating the distributions of goodness-of-fit test statistics based on the empirical distribution function: The case of unknown parametersThis paper discusses some problems possibly arising when approximating via Monte-Carlo simulations the distributions of goodness-of-fit test statistics based on the empirical distribution function.…Marco Capasso, Lucia Alessi, Matteo Barigozzi et al.·Mar 30, 2008SaveLearn
A pitfall in the use of extended likelihood for fitting fractions of pure samples in mixed samplesThe paper elucidates, with an analytic example, a subtle mistake in the application of the extended likelihood method to the problem of determining the fractions of pure samples in a mixed sample…A. Nappi·Mar 19, 2008SaveLearn