The complex relationship between anti-immigrant sentiment and exposure in the Netherlands

Abstract

We study the relationship between exposure to immigrants and right-wing votes used as a proxy for anti-immigrant sentiment in the Netherlands. Exposure to immigrants is measured using a novel indicator, adapted from the residential segregation literature, applied to grid data available for the entire country at the aggregate level. Using the proxy of election results, we are able to study the entire voting population instead of a limited subset of panel respondents. In our cross-sectional study of the 2023 national election, we find that municipalities and neighbourhoods with greater exposure have less anti-immigrant sentiment. However, looking at the increase in right-wing vote share from the 2021 to the 2023 national elections, we find evidence of an ``overexposure effect'', as this relationship reverses, and the areas that saw significant increases in migrants subsequently experienced an increase in right-wing votes. Furthermore, we see that at high levels of exposure, wealth (and inequality) plays an important role in the voting dynamics, indicating that relative deprivation theory may play a role.