China's Shrinking Home Bias and Rising Disruptive Impact: Evidence from a Global Citation Network Analysis

Abstract

China has become the world's largest producer of scientific publications, yet concerns persist that this growth is inflated by excessive domestic citation practices. In this study, we analyze a citation network of over 45 million publications from Web of Science (1980-2025) to investigate China's home citation bias and research impact. Using a network reshuffling null model to control for the structural effect of publication volume, we find that China's home citation bias is less pronounced than commonly assumed and has been steadily declining over the past two decades. Chinese researchers do not exhibit a significantly stronger home citation preference than other major countries, indicating increasing internationalization rather than insularity. Furthermore, using the persistent disruption framework, we show that Chinese papers are converging toward American papers in their capacity to produce paradigm-shifting work. These findings challenge prevailing narratives about Chinese scientific home bias and suggest that China's advances in research impact.