Two locked tests of phase-structure features for transition prediction

Abstract

A published theoretical account of phase structure in rotary attention was subjected to two pre-specified empirical tests of whether phase-derived features improve prediction of a commitment or contradiction endpoint over a baseline that does not receive those features. Study 1 froze a contradiction-category pipeline and scored a sealed primary comparison of PC-2 against baseline. On 1,136 eligible cases the paired AUROC difference was +0.00087. The 99% interval included zero, and the difference did not reach the pre-specified threshold of +0.05. Advancement was not passed. Study 2 developed fifteen layer treatments on open blocks b0-b4 only (1,415 transitions, 20x5 grouped folds). A locked conjunctive rule required a positive PC-2 mean-repeat increment, a positive increment on at least four of five seed blocks, and a positive mean of those five differences. No treatment advanced. The official selection is null. The theoretical paper is not withdrawn. The extra ranking lift was not found under the rules locked in advance.