Excursion-Resolved Thermodynamic Inference without Observing Reverse Transitions

Abstract

Experiments often detect only selected transitions, leaving the underlying state dynamics and dissipation hidden. We show that waiting-time distributions between directed visible events can reconstruct the boundary dynamics without observing the reverse of every detected transition. Under a simple source-target closure condition, they determine visible rates and the hidden excursions connecting observed states, yielding a rigorous lower bound on total entropy production that improves the standard waiting-time estimate when reverse events are available. Remarkably, observing only a spanning directed cycle is sufficient to identify the full Markov generator, even when all reverse cycle edges and other microscopic transitions remain unseen.