Epidemic outbreaks on structured populations

Abstract

Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra- and inter-community interactions. Recently Watts et al introduced a metapopulation model which accounts for several features observed in real outbreaks [Watts et al, PNAS 102, 11157 (2005)]. In this work I provide an analytical solution to this model, enhancing our understanding of the model and the epidemic outbreaks it represents. First, I demonstrate that depending on the intra-community expected outbreak size and the fraction of social bridges the epidemic outbreaks die out or there is a finite probability to observe a global epidemics. Second, I show that the global scenario is characterized by resurgent epidemics, their number increasing with increasing the intra-community average distance between individuals. Finally, I present empirical data for the AIDS epidemics supporting the model predictions.