Chaotic, staggered and polarized dynamics in opinion forming: the contrarian effect

Abstract

We revisit the no tie breaking 2-state Galam contrarian model of opinion dynamics for update groups of size 3. While the initial model assumes a constant density of contrarians a for both opinions, it now depends for each opinion on its global support. Proportionate contrarians are thus found to indeed preserve the former case main results. However, restricting the contrarian behavior to only the current collective majority, makes the dynamics more complex with novel features. For a density a<a_c=1/9 of one-sided contrarians, a chaotic basin is found in the fifty-fifty region separated from two majority-minority point attractors, one on each side. For 1/9<a< 0.301 only the chaotic basin survives. In the range a>0.301 the chaotic basin disappears and the majority starts to alternate between the two opinions with a staggered flow towards two point attractors. We then study the effect of both, decoupling the local update time sequence from the contrarian behavior activation, and a smoothing of the majority rule. A status quo driven bias for contrarian activation is also considered. Introduction of unsettled agents driven in the debate on a contrarian basis is shown to only shrink the chaotic basin. The model may shed light to recent apparent contradictory elections with on the one hand very tied results like in US in 2000 and in Germany in 2002 and 2005, and on the other hand, a huge majority like in France in 2002.